Dinner or HDB

yeah man, I didn't tease her also, others who dunno might really take her advice for real and wait till the cow comes home.
 


hi May, we have been using our place for weekends nowadays as we are accompany my MIL in her condo. Our place is 5-10 mins (less than 1 MRT station distance) drive from her condo, so its really convenient.
 
The housing prices don't have a defined pattern - as much as the "gurus" tried to tell us otherwise.

The last peak was in 2008 just before the global financial crisis. But who would have known it will crash after that. Since then it has a low in 2009 and by all predictions, it suppose to stay depressed in 2009 but it has been climbing in 2009 and into 2010. We are now almost at the peak of 2008 (although still a far cry from the peak of 1996).

This recent trend is unusual because the property index normally lags the other indicators like stock market and general economic outlook.. but in this instance, the property index actually outperformed is ahead of the economy.

But unless there is a major catastrophe, property prices will not dip much. The best time is actually over.. it should be sometime in 2009 just after the global financial crisis.. the next best time, who will know?
 
ya best time was early last year... more popular ones like metropolitan was going for 1.45mil for a 1894sqf 4rm unit... that would have been the perfect one to buy for investment for me. not forgetting Rivergate at 1300psf, Watermark at almost 1000psf... there were too many choices that u sort of took awhile to decide if it's gonna head any lower... u know, when things are too good, u do wonder. Well, me and a couple of colleagues are also kicking ourselves now... but then - altho we missed out on Gaining, we didn't make any losses, and we were part of a lesson learnt.

so just be positive lor... some money not ours to make, but good thing it's not ours to lose too.

i dun believe in trends, altho cyclces are possible. but i think the world is now very connected and u can easily buy properties in spore even if u're sitting in south africa now watching the world cup... sentiments are not just local but global... not just global but can be based on the local sentiment for the particular country of domicile of the buyer. certainly, a hongkonger may not feel our property to be 'very expensive', just as we feel properties overseas are 'cheap'.

when buying for own stay, i feel dun be too hung-up on whether it's the right price, but rather - is this the place i want to house my family in, and share laughters and joys in? and if it is within budget... Yeah, why not?

when it comes to properties we Won't be staying in, then we exercise all the discretion - but Not emotions. some pple look for rental properties but instead of looking something with good yield, they Must also like the property enough to wanna stay in it... well, i think some things no need to mix.
 
Hi powder,

My hubby said he should have bought 2 condo instead of 1.

I said it was too risky who knows the property market would recover or not.

Even Temasek Holdings got the timing wrong when they sell all their Barclay shares in Mar, only for it to rally in May. Thus making a loss.

If big corporation cannot time the market, what more little fish like us.
 
"If big corporation cannot time the market, what more little fish like us."

I beg to differ on this statement of yours Albee. Big corporations do not always get their decisions right also. There are a lot of self-made millionaires in SG (like powder) and also low-profile stock market gurus around, just that they don't like to be in the limelight only.
 
Thomas, dun mention me like tat leh... i not fit to be in that category u mentioned... i just well-paid employee. self-made ones are those super happening ones with solid accument and alot more guts!

Albee, other pple's mistakes would have no implications on my belief in myself and my decisions. if i believe in something, i dun need someone smarter to tell me that i cannot make it... nor take reference from someone smarter. so dun let others affect u in this way...
 
Albee, you contradicting yourself. At first you said to wait for the market to crash, which implies that you believe in the waiting game. Now you are saying no one can time the market.
 
The diff between big corp vs the small fishes is probably the volume and profile. Small players benefit from quick reactivity while they lose out in negotiating and influencing power. Big players have much more power to apply pressure for policies to be made in favour of their investments.

It is not true that the pond only holds big fishes. Each has a different game to play with.
 
Hi doll,

What I mean is I wait 5 to 7 yrs and then enter the market.

When I enter the market, I still cannot confirm this is definitely the right decision because the market can go either way still.

I can't predict the future but I can minimise the risk by waiting it out.
 
no lah thomas, i have not made that kind of money yet... i'll take some that credit when my other property goes enbloc in the next 2 yrs... hopefully lah. (of cos i can't mention which one!)

i suck at stock market... i suck in alot of things actually. property so far seems to be more suited for me, then again it's not like i buy/sell... i just made 3 right calls so far... sitting on another 1 more for enbloc. u must also know that i lost 130k in stocks 2yrs back... and have not gotten back in. not for stupid pple like me. i am an english-ed ah beng.
 
Albee, it seems you don't understand the context of the discussion and keep referring to your case as an example for today's situation. Those times you had gone through were probably over for good. Just look at the slight dip in 2009 that lasted only for two quarters, when people thought we were heading back to the post-911 days. Besides, TS was talking about resale HDB and her first home. This is a basic need. Also, interest rates are very conducive these days.
 
Powder, the cash component of the unit's price is really prohibisive for a newbie condo investor. do you have any tips to overcome this barrier to entry? what type of leverage do you recommend?

i would really like to find a shortcut rather than to resort to taking parents' money.
 
albee

"I can't predict the future but I can minimise the risk by waiting it out."

this statement is flawed. Yes, you can minimise the risk.. basically you avoid the risk by waiting. But you would have also forgo the opportunity to make good money.
 
albee,

Property cycles are not fixed although they do lag behind the stock market on a general basis. I already explained the abnormality of the dip in 2009. We would have expected and most expected it to be depressed in 2009 and even 2010 and 2011.. but apparently the property market is otherwise. Today, we are almost at the last peak of 2008 (just before the global financial crisis).

If you have bought in early 2009 and sell today more than a year later, you would have make bundles.. The question is, who dare to buy in early 2009 just after the crisis? If anyone has the guts to do so, they would make a lot just 12 months later.
 
If you have money (I mean cash and not too much gearing).. then buying when the market is depressed is the best..

You don't need to me a rocket scientist to worry if the property market will recover.. because it will always recover. The only issue is whether you are catching the bottom.. but that should really be an issue of how much you can make and not whether you will make - because if you have cash and buy during a depressed market - sure to make money.

Look at what China is doing in Greece now.. investing and buying up ports / businesses. China have cash and the whole Greece is up for sale.

If China is bold enough, they should make a bid to scoop up BP's share which has shed half of its value since the oil leaking issue..
 
SM, i emptied out my CPF for the HDB so i have to pay 20% cash if i want to buy a private property. for a $1m condo, i have to have at least excess cash of S$200K with me right now.

the loan to value limit has been lowered to 80% this year.
 
powder: wah enbloc...must keep praying then hehe. always envy those ppl who kena enbloc and then got new places to stay!

130k? if I lost that amount, think I can't sleep man.
 
thanks SM for the tip.

ok, i got a question for all you successful guys and girls out there. HOW TO GET RICH?

Profile

30 yo tertiary educated female
Very fluent in English and Mandarin
Above average looks
No CPF
No excess cash, whatever balance now, prefer to keep as savings buffer
Annual income S$90,000
Present job - white collar OL. Future job - willing to consider sales.

Pls help her chart her route to become millionaire.

All helpful and constructive ideas are welcome.
 
May, wat cash component? for private it's only 5%, 1mil is 50k... way better than HDB. of cos HDB can only buy 1...

of cos if the bank doesn't back the valuation, then u will have a 'COV' too... but most banks should match, if they dun match u shouldn't buy unless u got alot of spare cash.
 
thomas, yeah sure lose sleep, but then we must be fair - as much as we wanna make money, we can also lose money. i am a high-risk person so altho i didn't wanna lose the money, i have only myself to be responsible for the money i lost, noone else. and from that, i learnt a 130k lesson? hehe
 
for me too, well it happened to wake me up from my stupidity and remind me that i'm not infallible... tat's an important human lesson. i have to embrace that loss and lesson... just make sure we make more than we lose... i not whiz, so can't make without losing... hehe
 
I lost about 1M in the 1998 crisis.

I did not go bankrupt. As fortunately for me, I did not borrow much for the speculation. I had to sell 1 property. And I have other side-income (rental) to tahan.

1 of my mahjong kakis was bankrupt. Another has to sell condo to stay in HDB.
 
1mil in 98 is Huge for anyone... tks for sharing man... i felt more stupid than heartpain than anything... it's the gamblers' stupor for me perhaps... good thing is i never speculate with money i dun have. of cos if it's property crash - i dun think i would survive without going thru bankruptcy...
 
It was craziness because in the early 90s it was so easy to make money from stock and property. During the peak, I owned 4 private properties.. sometimes just hold-on to a property for 6 months can make 100K easily.

Whatever I made from in the early 90s stocks + property (1M plus) was wiped out during the 1998 crisis. I even had to stay in hdb rental for a year.. and my landlord actually committed suicide jumping..

Good thing was prior to the crash, it was the property high of 1996 and I resisted the temptation to cash out on all of my property (collecting rental). If I have cashed out, it would be gone as well in 1998.

Actually prior to the crash, I made many clever move to make 1 million plus in around 6 years. But it was all gone in a matter of months. So it does not matter how good or smart you are.. 1 bad crash and if you do not see it coming is enough to kill you.

That was why after that I became smarter. I now look at mid-term.. and I correctly anticipated the 2008 crash.. liquidated and take cash for 50% of investments.. and then buy them up for cheap again in early 2009 when market sentiments were bad..

I am now trying to anticipate the bubble burst in China.. But China is a different animal because it has so much of foreign reserve..

ACtually, if I am Temasek or GIC, I would scoop up BP's shares and invest cheaply in Greece..
 
If you are investing in stocks or funds.. you should take a look every year.. to decide you should invest more.. if you are optimistic.. or you should cash out (at least portion of it) - to realize the gains. Some signals are pretty obvious.. but people are just lazy.. They put money in stocks / funds and they say for investment.. so they don't bother..

To maximise, you need to anticipate trends.. and take action. Sitting and doing nothing means you simply go through the highs / lows.. yes, you make some returns.. but they are very modest.

The only shares I don't bother is the singtel "A" shares.
 
albee,

the key is to be more flexible with decisions along the way than just plain waiting for a specific period.

at the current junction, i think there is no fixed waiting time - nothing noteworthy of 5 or 8 years' cycle liao.
 
tks for the sharing man... it's good to know some of these lessons, at least we can cross-check on ourselves... sometimes in the frenzy, u'll just keep going and before u know it, u chewed more than u could swallow...
 
i guess for me now, the only vehicle would be property if possible... else i'm cashing out on the hdb then catch the right property to generate income... wanted to pay off some of the home loan but then 1.85% versus getting 2.5% sitting in CPF... i'd rather not pay for the loan, collect interest from CPF first.
 
Hi sm,

I don't understand why you end up in HDB rental. You are not retrench from work so you can continue to service the bank loan.

Even if the value of the 4 property dipped, just collect rental till the property goes up again.
 
Seriously, for the current property I really have no clue as to what is happening despite my many years of battling in the property scenes. I dun even understand why it kept going up in 2009 after the 1Q.

I guess it could be more of "foreigner" injection of funds. And when I am clueless, I stand aside.

You know the Sentosa Cove thing.. A couple of years back, one of my friend asked me to join - each share is 1M.. So we need about 5 or 6 million for the land. In the end I did not join - cos I have no good feel about the 99 years. With the build up cost of 3 to 4 million, you can sell the bungalow for > 10 million.

Last week we heard a unit sold for 30 million. I know last year, when I went to my regular dentist, she was also asking - a unit available for 14 million if I interested to get some like-minded investors to buy.. (as she knows I dabble in property). When I visited her a month ago, she told the the unit was sold 21M late last year. So could have made 7M in less than 12 months.
 
Albee... those days, the property is worth much lesser than your loan... ie your loan outstanding 1.2mil for A-house and A-House only worth 800k... the bank will ask u to pay the difference.

notice how in the past - pple cannot divorce becos they cannot afford to sell their house? or how some pple cannot afford to sell their car cos they have to pay 20-30k to loan FIRST.
 
albee,

ha ha.. I have to sell 1 the property I am staying to get cash to pay stock losses. I have another property that I was renting out.. but I decided not to touch it.. and rent hdb instead. It was only for a year as I need time to get my finances in place and I bought a place again after a year. I almost sold my car as well.. but it was not worth much besides I need a car as I had 2 kids then.
 
I remember just before the crash, I had a full-time job.. But most of the time I was watching the stock market.. All of us in the office are watching the stock market.. always meeting to talk about stocks..

I traded like 100s of K each day.. some contra, some need to pick up.

When the market crash.. contra losses added up.. and went in for more contra and again lose more..
 
albee,

Actually, I took short-term loans from banks, friends, relatives.. while waiting to sell my property.. So I need to service the loan. If I don't sell property, I will be owe many banks and many people money...
 
then not as bad as some of my frens' folks who got burnt really bad... negative equity thru'out... 1.2mil purchase price and 600k worth... with 900k loan outstanding! so bankruptcy was imminent... only way to avoid was to sell almost everything and borrow further...
 
Hi sm,

Thanks for sharing. You are quite a risk taker. I'm more conservative because I have 2 school-going children, can't overstretch myself.

I cleared my bank loan for the 1st property before I take another bank loan for the 2nd property. But I need 5 to 7 years to accumulate the cash.

I make sure I can pay up at least 50% of the property in cash and the rest will borrow from the bank.

If not, I can't sleep at night.
So you always see me waiting all the time because I need time to accumulate the cash part.
 
Not really a risk taker. But when it is easy to make money, we "lose" ourselves.

When I was heavy speculating, I had 2 kids too. BUt I have a children fund in which I don't touch them.. so even if I got no money, the children will have money for their normal needs.
 
well Albee, the chances of your loan being far more than your pty worth is not so likely in this current climate... so u dun really need to payup 50% first... it's wise, but may not be so necessary.

ya, like SM, i have an education fund set aside for the kids... they will have decent amunt of money to study when they turn 18...
 


You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top