hey cact,
me thought similar way to u initially, but have since realised that it's not as simplistic, and the new rich are really the new rich. of cos when talking pty, me referring only to Central.. ok to be specific - orchard/river valley/grange... not even newton. i dun discusss surburban at all, becos i'm very much a person who's only interested in the above locations... and i believe strongly that these places will actually double...
when u look at the enblocs happening, and u see the prices being paid out, there is no way the property can sell lower than the cost... and the cost has gone up... location is very specific to prices compared with the past.
if u look at individuals, it's a pretty fair assessment u made, but if u look further at the new rich, u realise that loans are not a method of purchase... in my circle, most pple have no intention of taking anything more than 3yrs to pay for the full property... think abt it. as much i know pple are taking 30yrs to pay off a 300k HDB, there are also pple taking 3yrs to pay off a 1mil pty... or pple who buy 2-3 ptys... they dun need to sell, nor rent... they just buying to keep, and more pple are buying to keep becos they can afford to. there are pockets of pple who buy as investment to make money, but these are more the minority...
just in my circle, i see purchases of over sgd50million in the past year liao... these pple are the new rich... spending 7-10mil buying a few properties is an activity becos nothing better to spend on. rental is not a necessary source of income, just an alternative if they even wanna rent out. these are Not pple who use rental to pay loans... not at all. i'm also not a believer in investing in property, it's hardly an investment if u have to take up a massive loan stretched over 20yrs...
as much as we'd like to believe we'll get reasonable prices, my belief is that it's only in areas outside of the areas i mentioned... but i agree tat 99yr property in surburban areas definitely will suffer in fact freehold too... i have always been a firm believer in Location. so if we wanna use the word 'investment', a good popular location must be mentioned in the same breath, else i dun think it's worth calling it 'an investment'. becos it is Not true investment-inspired, it is more inspired by the lack of finances.
look at the ECs... i've always found them to be overpriced for its location... selling only on the word 'condo'... a true investment person will not even look at it, it does not fulfil 'Location'. so if u wanna invest in property, it's only the popular areas... and of cos, i think east coast has potential, but at current prices i dun think they will yield better. next location will be the west coast... keep a lookout for large enblocs in those areas in the next 5yrs...
i'm very basic... i see where the property tycoons are putting their money... not whether or not sporeans can afford or are on contract jobs... becos if u look at India property and the number of poor pple, u'll realise tat the same logic doesn't apply.